Steam Community :: Group :: y2kbased's betting strategies

q-fire 19 Jun, 2015 @ 12:57am

hello , what's the status for the video u sad u work on?

y2k

31 May, 2015 @ 10:02pm

Hey guys sorry I missed the matches today, I went out last night and drank way too much as was in bed for most of the day, I don't drink very often =p. I will post tomorrow's matches in the June group tonight and I'm still working on the video, it's taking a lot longer than I thought it would.

Reegz 31 May, 2015 @ 11:08am

Any predictions today buddy?

jman 30 May, 2015 @ 9:36pm

what are the odds of Iskold winning LGB?

Puukainais 29 May, 2015 @ 3:27pm

Anyone placing a bet on Australia vs. New Zealand matchup?

Puukainais 29 May, 2015 @ 12:41pm

Actually predicted 3 matches today, 2 of them underdog wins ( Kinguin and KFish ) but because of my small inventory I can't take any risks before I have leftovers so I skipped. PJSalt :(

Ryggskott 29 May, 2015 @ 8:48am

Yeah np, they are playing really great right now (mirage), may i ask what times you are usally able to post on? (i'm in a completly different time-zone)

y2k

29 May, 2015 @ 8:42am

Sorry for missing the tsm/dig game, games usually don't start that early so I missed it but dig wouldve been an okay bet. I'm not betting on anything today, none of the matches look good and I could use a break from losing.

Ryggskott 29 May, 2015 @ 8:28am

yeah i ended up doing a ICB on them

Puukainais 29 May, 2015 @ 6:57am

Lake I ASSUME he'd go like 200$ on Dignitas because of the silly odds.

They've had some close matches, but Dignitas haven't really won any of the BO's in the end.

Ryggskott 29 May, 2015 @ 6:41am

please post on the tsm/dig match!

EntryLag 29 May, 2015 @ 6:27am

Will today be the day when Dig beats TSM?

✿conejo 28 May, 2015 @ 10:30am

Would going big on neo vs hr be bad? I'm close to doing it but decided to take a breather first.

y2k

26 May, 2015 @ 11:25pm

@Zombotec Thanks for the kind words!

MrBreast (REAL) 26 May, 2015 @ 8:54am

@y2kbased First of all, thank you for your work. I will donate a fair share of my profit after the next LAN, so keep those predictions crisp. :)

rEVERS3D 26 May, 2015 @ 6:41am

@BildoTheKid Request the desktop version

Kronovi Anesti 25 May, 2015 @ 3:18pm

Hey can anyone open the announcement links on phone? It won't let me open them.

Puukainais 24 May, 2015 @ 12:31pm

What do you think about TA vs. Mouz?

Angro 24 May, 2015 @ 8:07am

?

doom 23 May, 2015 @ 8:11pm

excited to see your thoughts for some of the ESEA/ESL games tomorrow!

Kronovi Anesti 23 May, 2015 @ 3:06pm

@y2kbased thanks for the NiP HR advice! I didn't get to watch, but it was awesome when I checked my phone and realized I made $19!

BeanBean 23 May, 2015 @ 11:16am

Video bro, stop procrastinating. Remember what's really important in life. www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNTBb1u6UGg

y2k

23 May, 2015 @ 11:04am

I think NiP HR should be 34-66, so could be a good bet but I'm going golfing

y2k

23 May, 2015 @ 9:19am

Betting on HR vs NiP could be good if NiP beats Envy

y2k

23 May, 2015 @ 9:18am

Well the two good matches with Fnatic got cancelled, other than that nothing looks very good =/

Kronovi Anesti 23 May, 2015 @ 5:54am

@y2kbased any thoughts on todays matches?

MrBreast (REAL) 22 May, 2015 @ 12:06pm

CSGOLOUNG IS DOWN!!! WE ARE DOOMED!!!1!

J_BS 21 May, 2015 @ 5:58pm

@zarquon didnt research it properly at all saw my knife was available to bet on csgo lounge and assumed all knives had become available to bet

pepsi ok 21 May, 2015 @ 4:52am

@jbs why would it, the knives that are bettable on lounge are just new low tier items to bet, doesnt really make a difference

y2k

20 May, 2015 @ 10:11pm

No I won't do anything differently

J_BS 20 May, 2015 @ 7:45pm

just went on csgo lounge and i can now bet my knife? dear god please help me not to lose you, will this completely change your approach to betting y2k?

Packster 20 May, 2015 @ 4:16pm

no NA matches?

LegoMaster 20 May, 2015 @ 9:08am

Agh I see thank you. 36% is the chance of winning over lose/draw

Lionfish 20 May, 2015 @ 7:06am

you take the chance of them losing and the chance of them winning and add it then divide the chance of winning by the addition. .36+.16 = .52
.36/.52 =.69
This is because the chance of draw is entirely irrelevant because you get skins back

xTikka 20 May, 2015 @ 4:08am

@Triton you have to calculate percentages with values in the range [1,0] . If they have 0.6 chance to win each map the probability of winning both = 0.6*0.6 = 0.36 (36%) however, the chance of not losing the BO2 = 1-(0.4*0.4) = 0.84 (84%). I guess the 69% is then some value in between.

LegoMaster 20 May, 2015 @ 1:10am

@y2kbased. When you say

I'm giving them 60% a map for 69% in the best of two here.

How do you figure that? Wouldn't statistically, if you're giving them 60% to win each map, they only have 36% chance to win the Bo2?

y2k

19 May, 2015 @ 7:23pm

It did that to me, just have to change the language on the top right and it's normal.

Kronovi Anesti 19 May, 2015 @ 7:16pm

Why is ms ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ all in Russian? Anyone else have this problem?

hiyoon 18 May, 2015 @ 3:11pm

teach me to golf @y2kbased

y2k

18 May, 2015 @ 1:14pm

Hey guys, none of these NA games tonight look very profitable so I'm just going to go golfing.

Puukainais 18 May, 2015 @ 11:09am

Who else just lost everything on Gplay (͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) I sure did, RiP

fragDADDY 18 May, 2015 @ 8:54am

What are you guys thinking for todays matches?

MrBreast (REAL) 18 May, 2015 @ 8:34am

@y2kbased I made 20~ bucks with 5€ EV. Maybe i should run this group now. lol

fragDADDY 18 May, 2015 @ 7:31am

come in y2k!

Puukainais 18 May, 2015 @ 5:30am

Man, was I the only one who bet ON Na'Vi ? :(

4g 18 May, 2015 @ 4:51am

Predictions for todays matches? I went all-in on VP vs NaVi and won. Never doing that again, too scary :L

LegoMaster 17 May, 2015 @ 7:41pm

Well... Thanks Affnity!

http://i.imgur.com/rLrCZE6.png

y2k

17 May, 2015 @ 7:04pm

Hopefully you guys did pretty well this weekend. I made $2350 off the lan with an EV of $2700, so still didn't run super well.

Kronovi Anesti 16 May, 2015 @ 8:50pm

@GanjaLord4tothe20 he usually posts about an hour before each match.

kz 16 May, 2015 @ 8:41pm

any predictions for tomorrows gfin matches?