Steam コミュニティ :: グループ :: y2kbased's betting strategies

q-fire 2015年6月19日 0時57分

hello , what's the status for the video u sad u work on?

y2k

2015年5月31日 22時02分

Hey guys sorry I missed the matches today, I went out last night and drank way too much as was in bed for most of the day, I don't drink very often =p. I will post tomorrow's matches in the June group tonight and I'm still working on the video, it's taking a lot longer than I thought it would.

Reegz 2015年5月31日 11時08分

Any predictions today buddy?

jman 2015年5月30日 21時36分

what are the odds of Iskold winning LGB?

Puukainais 2015年5月29日 15時27分

Anyone placing a bet on Australia vs. New Zealand matchup?

Puukainais 2015年5月29日 12時41分

Actually predicted 3 matches today, 2 of them underdog wins ( Kinguin and KFish ) but because of my small inventory I can't take any risks before I have leftovers so I skipped. PJSalt :(

Ryggskott 2015年5月29日 8時48分

Yeah np, they are playing really great right now (mirage), may i ask what times you are usally able to post on? (i'm in a completly different time-zone)

y2k

2015年5月29日 8時42分

Sorry for missing the tsm/dig game, games usually don't start that early so I missed it but dig wouldve been an okay bet. I'm not betting on anything today, none of the matches look good and I could use a break from losing.

Ryggskott 2015年5月29日 8時28分

yeah i ended up doing a ICB on them

Puukainais 2015年5月29日 6時57分

Lake I ASSUME he'd go like 200$ on Dignitas because of the silly odds.

They've had some close matches, but Dignitas haven't really won any of the BO's in the end.

Ryggskott 2015年5月29日 6時41分

please post on the tsm/dig match!

EntryLag 2015年5月29日 6時27分

Will today be the day when Dig beats TSM?

✿conejo 2015年5月28日 10時30分

Would going big on neo vs hr be bad? I'm close to doing it but decided to take a breather first.

y2k

2015年5月26日 23時25分

@Zombotec Thanks for the kind words!

MrBreast (REAL) 2015年5月26日 8時54分

@y2kbased First of all, thank you for your work. I will donate a fair share of my profit after the next LAN, so keep those predictions crisp. :)

rEVERS3D 2015年5月26日 6時41分

@BildoTheKid Request the desktop version

Kronovi Anesti 2015年5月25日 15時18分

Hey can anyone open the announcement links on phone? It won't let me open them.

Puukainais 2015年5月24日 12時31分

What do you think about TA vs. Mouz?

Angro 2015年5月24日 8時07分

?

doom 2015年5月23日 20時11分

excited to see your thoughts for some of the ESEA/ESL games tomorrow!

Kronovi Anesti 2015年5月23日 15時06分

@y2kbased thanks for the NiP HR advice! I didn't get to watch, but it was awesome when I checked my phone and realized I made $19!

BeanBean 2015年5月23日 11時16分

Video bro, stop procrastinating. Remember what's really important in life. www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNTBb1u6UGg

y2k

2015年5月23日 11時04分

I think NiP HR should be 34-66, so could be a good bet but I'm going golfing

y2k

2015年5月23日 9時19分

Betting on HR vs NiP could be good if NiP beats Envy

y2k

2015年5月23日 9時18分

Well the two good matches with Fnatic got cancelled, other than that nothing looks very good =/

Kronovi Anesti 2015年5月23日 5時54分

@y2kbased any thoughts on todays matches?

MrBreast (REAL) 2015年5月22日 12時06分

CSGOLOUNG IS DOWN!!! WE ARE DOOMED!!!1!

J_BS 2015年5月21日 17時58分

@zarquon didnt research it properly at all saw my knife was available to bet on csgo lounge and assumed all knives had become available to bet

pepsi ok 2015年5月21日 4時52分

@jbs why would it, the knives that are bettable on lounge are just new low tier items to bet, doesnt really make a difference

y2k

2015年5月20日 22時11分

No I won't do anything differently

J_BS 2015年5月20日 19時45分

just went on csgo lounge and i can now bet my knife? dear god please help me not to lose you, will this completely change your approach to betting y2k?

Packster 2015年5月20日 16時16分

no NA matches?

LegoMaster 2015年5月20日 9時08分

Agh I see thank you. 36% is the chance of winning over lose/draw

Lionfish 2015年5月20日 7時06分

you take the chance of them losing and the chance of them winning and add it then divide the chance of winning by the addition. .36+.16 = .52
.36/.52 =.69
This is because the chance of draw is entirely irrelevant because you get skins back

xTikka 2015年5月20日 4時08分

@Triton you have to calculate percentages with values in the range [1,0] . If they have 0.6 chance to win each map the probability of winning both = 0.6*0.6 = 0.36 (36%) however, the chance of not losing the BO2 = 1-(0.4*0.4) = 0.84 (84%). I guess the 69% is then some value in between.

LegoMaster 2015年5月20日 1時10分

@y2kbased. When you say

I'm giving them 60% a map for 69% in the best of two here.

How do you figure that? Wouldn't statistically, if you're giving them 60% to win each map, they only have 36% chance to win the Bo2?

y2k

2015年5月19日 19時23分

It did that to me, just have to change the language on the top right and it's normal.

Kronovi Anesti 2015年5月19日 19時16分

Why is ms ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ all in Russian? Anyone else have this problem?

jisoo 2015年5月18日 15時11分

teach me to golf @y2kbased

y2k

2015年5月18日 13時14分

Hey guys, none of these NA games tonight look very profitable so I'm just going to go golfing.

Puukainais 2015年5月18日 11時09分

Who else just lost everything on Gplay (͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) I sure did, RiP

fragDADDY 2015年5月18日 8時54分

What are you guys thinking for todays matches?

MrBreast (REAL) 2015年5月18日 8時34分

@y2kbased I made 20~ bucks with 5€ EV. Maybe i should run this group now. lol

fragDADDY 2015年5月18日 7時31分

come in y2k!

Puukainais 2015年5月18日 5時30分

Man, was I the only one who bet ON Na'Vi ? :(

4g 2015年5月18日 4時51分

Predictions for todays matches? I went all-in on VP vs NaVi and won. Never doing that again, too scary :L

LegoMaster 2015年5月17日 19時41分

Well... Thanks Affnity!

http://i.imgur.com/rLrCZE6.png

y2k

2015年5月17日 19時04分

Hopefully you guys did pretty well this weekend. I made $2350 off the lan with an EV of $2700, so still didn't run super well.

Kronovi Anesti 2015年5月16日 20時50分

@GanjaLord4tothe20 he usually posts about an hour before each match.

kz 2015年5月16日 20時41分

any predictions for tomorrows gfin matches?