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Prior to the introduction of TF2 CASES with the Jungle Inferno update in the summer of 2017 I unboxed 330 unusuals out of 46978 CRATES which established a .007 chance of an unusual from a crate for me. That is 7/10 of 1 percent.
With the CASE introduction and tiered hats i unboxed 18 unusuals of out 2210 cases a chance of .008. In both scenarios we have that same under 1 percent chance.
Good luck and have fun chasing purple unicorns.
MB