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y2kbased's betting strategies y2kbetting
STEAM GROUP
y2kbased's betting strategies y2kbetting
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y2k 16 May, 2015 @ 12:11am
May 16th - Gfinity Spring Masters Day 2
Format: Gfinity - Best of Two

♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ Odds: Vox 73% - Liquid 27%

My odds: Vox 73% - Liquid 27%

Kelly Criterion: N/A

My recommended bet: Skip

My bet: Skipping


The odds right now have Vox at 62% a map which is basically where I would put them so I'm just going to skip this.





Format: Gfinity - Best of Two

♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ Odds: Cloud 9 9% - Envy 91%

My odds: Cloud 9 10% - Envy 90%

Kelly Criterion: N/A

My recommended bet: Skip

My bet: Skipping


Giving Cloud 9 25% a map here for 10% in the best of two, just going to skip.










Format: Gfinity - Best of Two

♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ Odds: Fnatic 74% - Navi 26%

My odds: Fnatic 54% - Navi 46%

Kelly Criterion: 26.6% on Navi (at 2.78:1)

My recommended bet: 8.9% on Navi

My bet: 4x Max on Navi


Navi will most likely ban Cache and maybe Train, not sure about the second map. Fnatic will probably ban Overpass and Dust 2/Train. Navi will pick Dust 2/Mirage Fnatic will probably just pick Inferno, maybe either team picks Cobble but that's not too likely.

Inferno - Fnatic 11-10 Navi 6-7 (Navi 2-0) Overall 53% Fnatic Adjusted to 50%

Dust 2 - Fnatic 6-5 Navi 4-5 Overall 55% Fnatic
Mirage - Fnatic 11-9 Navi 5-5 (Fnatic 1-0) Overall 52% Fnatic Adjusted to 54%


Roughly this gives Navi 48% a map for 46% in the best of two.






Format: Gfinity - Best of Two

♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ Odds: Titan 21% - VP 79%

My odds: Titan 31% - VP 69%

Kelly Criterion: 13% on Titan (at 3.83:1)

My recommended bet: 4.3% on Titan

My bet: $600 on Titan


VP will ban Dust 2/Inferno, Titan will ban Overpass and Mirage/Cobble/Train. Likely maps here are Cache and Mirage/Cobble.

Cache - Titan 8-10 VP 10-10 (VP 2-0) Overall 53% VP Adjusted to 56%

Mirage - Titan 1-4 VP 10-8 (VP 1-0) Overall 73.5% VP Adjusted to 65%
Cobble - Titan 1-3 VP 5-3 (VP 1-0) Overall 71.5% VP Adjusted to 65%

Overall this puts Titan at roughly 40% a map or 31% in the best of two.








Format: Gfinity - Best of Two

♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ Odds: Immunity 3% - Envy 97%

My odds: Immunity 6% - Envy 94%

Kelly Criterion: N/A

My recommended bet: Skip or icb on imm

My bet: $20 worth of garbage on Imm


Giving Immunity 20% a map here for 6% in the best of two and will just skip.







Format: Gfinity - Best of Two

♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ Odds: Vox 10% - NiP 90%

My odds: Vox 13% - NiP 87%

Kelly Criterion: N/A

My recommended bet: Skip

My bet: Skipping


Giving vox 28% a map for 13% in the best of two, but I'm just going to skip.








Format: Gfinity - Best of Two

♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ Odds: Navi 74% - Vox 26%

My odds: Navi 85% - Vox 15%

Kelly Criterion: 40.2% on Navi (at 0.35:1)

My recommended bet: 13.4% on Navi

My bet: 3x Max Navi, ran out of asiimovs with vp bet


Giving vox 30% a map for 15% in the best of two, might bet on Navi depending on the odds. Vox sitting at 39% a map right now which is very ambitious.






Format: Gfinity - Best of Two

♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ Odds: VP 32% - Envy 68%

My odds: VP 45% - Envy 55%

Kelly Criterion: 18.7% on VP (at 2.09:1)

My recommended bet: 6.2% on VP

My bet: $900 on VP


VP will ban Dust 2/Inferno, Envy will ban two of Overpass/Mirage/Cobble. Likely maps are Cache/Train. Without much to go off of on Train I'm just going to call it 50-50 based off of the last time they played it where Envy won in overtime.

Cache - VP 10-10 Envy 11-7 Overall 55% Envy

This puts Envy at 55% in the best of two and I might bet on this depending on the odds.






Format: Gfinity - Best of Two

♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ Odds: Liquid 3% - Fnatic 97%

My odds: Liquid 6% - Fnatic 94%

Kelly Criterion: N/A

My recommended bet: Skip or icb on liquid

My bet: Skipping


Giving Liquid 20% a map for 6% in the best of two, just skip this.








Format: Gfinity - Best of Two

♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ Odds: Immunity 8% - VP 92%

My odds: Immunity 6% - VP 94%

Kelly Criterion: N/A

My recommended bet: Skip or Max VP if you want

My bet: Skipping


Giving Immunity 20% a map or 6% in the best of two, just going to skip this as I'll be golfing.










Format: Gfinity - Best of Two

♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ Odds: Titan 81% - Cloud 9 19%

My odds: Titan 85% - Cloud 9 15%

Kelly Criterion: 14% on Titan (at 0.22:1)

My recommended bet: 4.4% on Titan or skip if you have a small inventory

My bet: Just skipping as I'll be golfing and I'm out of asiimovs to bet


Giving Cloud 9 30% a map for 15% in the best of two. Also worth noting that Cloud 9 is pretty much out of the tournament by this point.











Format: Gfinity - Best of Two

♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ Odds: NiP 67% - Navi 33%

My odds: NiP 55% - Navi 45%

Kelly Criterion: 17.4% on Navi (at 2:1)

My recommended bet: 5.8% on Navi, however odds can move a lot between now and then

My bet: I will be golfing and won't be able to bet on this, however I threw a max on Navi


Likely maps Mirage/Dust 2 although some other stuff could get played. I won't be able to bet on this and the odds will move a lot so you may have to use the kelly criterion formula yourself.

Mirage - Navi 5-6 NiP 7-11 Overall 54% Navi
Dust 2 - Navi 4-5 NiP 11-6 Overall 59% NiP

Overall 55-45 for NiP
Last edited by y2k; 16 May, 2015 @ 8:52am
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Showing 1-15 of 29 comments
Henrik finito 16 May, 2015 @ 12:13am 
thx amigo
enolic 16 May, 2015 @ 12:14am 
thanks!
Thorsten 16 May, 2015 @ 1:19am 
nice map preds
ArCaG 16 May, 2015 @ 1:51am 
"Navi will most likely ban Cache and maybe Train, not sure about the second map."

During their bootcamping at Kiev, Na'Vi have been practicing Train and they played against VP too. Source: Na'Vi youtube channel, they uploaded some videos about their bootcamp.
FREE_LARDON_BOY 16 May, 2015 @ 4:19am 
NaVi said multiple times that they absolutely love new train.
Puukainais 16 May, 2015 @ 5:49am 
Grats on that Titan win, didn't bet on that one, I went on Na'Vi instead but looks like.. well, they.. can't do it.
Kronovi Anesti 16 May, 2015 @ 6:49am 
Of course the only bet I sleep through was the Titan one, good call on that y2k!
y2k 16 May, 2015 @ 6:52am 
Originally posted by BildoTheKid:
Of course the only bet I sleep through was the Titan one, good call on that y2k!



Originally posted by Puukainais:
Grats on that Titan win, didn't bet on that one, I went on Na'Vi instead but looks like.. well, they.. can't do it.


Thanks guys, too bad Navi didn't manage to win at least one map, Mirage/Overpass gave them a really good chance to win.
Puukainais 16 May, 2015 @ 6:55am 
Ye, the amount I could have made on Titan and lost a tad on Na'Vi instead :9 what a day.

Not sure what to do with the VP vs. Envy now, odds as of now are 35:65.
FærgeAIM 16 May, 2015 @ 7:05am 
32:68 now, this calls for a VP bet for sure
vox 1-0 nip on train (vox's map). i think a small bet on them vs navi isn't a bad idea
apricot123 16 May, 2015 @ 7:33am 
Originally posted by Torsi23:
vox 1-0 nip on train (vox's map). i think a small bet on them vs navi isn't a bad idea
To be fair, a small bet on any game today isn't a bad idea.
hjf 16 May, 2015 @ 8:49am 
LOL GOLFING.

What a lozer!

jk <3

but srsly golfing stinks :) hope you have fun though. Going with girls hmmm? hehe
Last edited by hjf; 16 May, 2015 @ 8:50am
BadlyPk 16 May, 2015 @ 8:52am 
Thanks for the predictions! Have fun golfing =)
Thorsten 16 May, 2015 @ 10:07am 
nV us vs VP and Navi vs Nip is prolly gonna be 1:1 anyways because its BO2 bullshit aka Anti-Underdog-Insurance
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