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y2k 5 May, 2015 @ 4:48pm
May 5th - NA Online Matches
Format: Cevo - Bets of Two

♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ Odds: Cloud 9 90% - Paradox 10%

My odds: Cloud 9 87% - Paradox 13%

Kelly Criterion: 3.5% on Paradox (at 9.32:1)

My recommended bet: Skip or ~1% on Paradox

My bet: Skipping


I'm giving Paradox 28% a map which puts them at 13% for the best of two and am recommending a skip.




Format: Cevo - Bets of Two

♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ Odds: LG 81% - Paradox 19%

My odds: LG 84% - Paradox 16%

Kelly Criterion: 14.4% on LG (at .23:1)

My recommended bet: 4.8% on LG

My bet: 3x max on LG


I'm giving Paradox 30% a map or 16% for the best of two. The odds on this are moving a lot so don't bet on it until just before the match if you can.
Last edited by y2k; 5 May, 2015 @ 6:58pm
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Showing 1-14 of 14 comments
shine-ntc 5 May, 2015 @ 4:49pm 
y2k are you trading?
#1
shine-ntc 5 May, 2015 @ 4:50pm 
Originally posted by SHiNEb-iwnl-:
y2k are you trading?


Im looking for a Flip Knife | Fade and betting skins
#2
wiffle! 5 May, 2015 @ 5:15pm 
How about LG?
#3
y2k 5 May, 2015 @ 5:18pm 
Originally posted by SHiNEb-iwnl-:
y2k are you trading?

No sorry
#4
y2k 5 May, 2015 @ 5:20pm 
Originally posted by wiffle:
How about LG?

Right now LG is at 69% a map which is pretty accurate, probably skipping that too.
#5
48th POTUS 5 May, 2015 @ 6:07pm 
Should i go low on paradox since they are dominating c9?
#6
cé bobo 5 May, 2015 @ 6:14pm 
Hey bro, what is your equation for the real odds from the maps? like paradox has 28% chance a map, so how they have 13% to win the bo2?
#7
yessir 5 May, 2015 @ 6:29pm 
Originally posted by SHiNEb-iwnl-:
Originally posted by SHiNEb-iwnl-:
y2k are you trading?


Im looking for a Flip Knife | Fade and betting skins

Im trading my flip fade
#8
Fred 6 May, 2015 @ 12:34am 
if you say max, do you really mean max ? like 240 and not 4x asii ft ?
#9
rEVERS3D 6 May, 2015 @ 1:50am 
Originally posted by enVeneNad0 -:
Hey bro, what is your equation for the real odds from the maps? like paradox has 28% chance a map, so how they have 13% to win the bo2?

BO1 : Odds
BO3 : Odds² + 2 * Odds² * OtherOdds
Odds are the Odds for the team you are calculating the odds, Otherodds are the Odds for the other team

I believe he is using this one ^
Last edited by rEVERS3D; 6 May, 2015 @ 1:52am
#10
pepsi ok 6 May, 2015 @ 3:50am 
for bo2 it's odds^2
#11
cé bobo 6 May, 2015 @ 9:07am 
thanks guys
#12
y2k 6 May, 2015 @ 10:00am 
Originally posted by Fred:
if you say max, do you really mean max ? like 240 and not 4x asii ft ?

just 4 ft asiis
#13
y2k 6 May, 2015 @ 10:01am 
Originally posted by enVeneNad0 -:
Hey bro, what is your equation for the real odds from the maps? like paradox has 28% chance a map, so how they have 13% to win the bo2?

you compare the probability of both teams winning twice, or x^2 vs y^2, i think my next video will explain the different scenarios
#14
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Date Posted: 5 May, 2015 @ 4:48pm
Posts: 14
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