Infused vs. Choke

CSGL Odds: 74-24

Our Odds: 60-40

So I am no self-proclaimed professional at predicting UK matches, but I think I can at least use enough common sense and resources to makes an educated bet here.

Basically this event is the LAN finals for a group stage that has been taking place a bit off the radar (a few popped up on Lounge I think) with the 4 teams on Lounge today making it to the LAN. This is how the season played out to this point: link

If you are too lazy to click that, basically Choke actually was the only team in the entire league to beat this Infused team, pretty handily at 16-8 as well. From there on, Infused was able to handle everyone else with somewhat ease, including the other two teams in the LAN… while Choke lost to both of the other teams in the LAN and also to a team called “fish123”, and ended up barely qualifying by playing a decider BO3 against fish123 again and coming out ahead 2-1.

TLDR of that season would be that Infused overall is the better team, but their head-to-head matchup Choke stomped them.

The only other resource that I found somewhat comparable between the two teams would be their CEVO-Main season.

Similar matchups between the two include:

Infused < RCTIC G (13-16)
Choke > RCTIC G (16-1)
Infused > Lions (16-14)
Choke > Lions (16-14)
Infused > Imp Dragons (16-7)
Choke > Imp Dragons (16-14)
Infused > wolsung (16-5)
Choke > wolsung (16-9)
Infused > Publiclir (16-14)
Choke < Publiclir (11-16)
Their scorelines to me really don’t seem to be that much different either way (other than the RCTIC G game, which seems like an outlier) and they don’t really scream an advantage to Choke or Infused. They have a few matches that were decently close as well a few months back, but at least 3-4 players total have changed from either roster so I’m not going to be putting to much weight onto that.

From what I can tell, Infused seem a bit more consistent as shown by their ESL record to get to this LAN, but Choke are really not that far behind at all, especially not to the degree of losing 3 out of 4 times like the odds suggest. And from the small amount of UK games that I have watched, there really never seems to be a clear favorite when the teams play. I am going to go ahead and assume that these teams probably have scrimmed each other a fair amount along with playing with each other before as the UK scene isn’t as dominant yet, so giving one team a big advantage is stretching it a bit.

Our Bet: 2-3% (Small) Choke

Recommended Bet: Small Choke

HR vs. SK

CSGL Odds: 77-23

CSGL Odds: 65-35

So basically HR and SK are complete ass and titties on Mirage. Neither of the boasts above a 50% win-rate on the map and neither of them even puts up decent scorelines against anyone above Tier 3.

SK has literally went to Overtime on the map against a s1mpless Worst Players (my eyes), and HellRaisers haven’t put up double digits since dropping a like 12-6 lead against Mouz where they eventually lost 16-14, and their two games before that were 16-14’s as well to Orgless (win) and DendD (loss). SK has gotten throttled by eBettle 16-3, lost to Maxnrelax in double OT, and got spanked by Penta.

Neither team has an actual roster of 5 right now, and HR’s (CiS players) best option is a Swedish player who unless he is a god-child isn’t going to be able to speak their language (apart from two select words). SK’s own players have no idea what is going on with their team, have brought in the most useless pokemon in the game (magickarp) to fill their 5th spot, and can’t win a game to save their lives, although they did beat Penta on Train, who by the way now have lost 11 Train maps in a row.

If you are looking for the game to bet on that is the equivalent to putting your dick in a blender while pretending to have hope that the ensuing beverage will be of any sort of palatable flavor, then this right here is the game to bet on. For me personally, I like my dick so I am going to skip.

Our Bet: Skip

Recommended Bet: Skip

NiP vs. Titan

CSGL Odds: 65-35

Our Odds: 55-45

So a couple days ago both these teams had a pretty evident struggle in their matches for the day, as NiP was unable to get anything going against Na’Vi across two maps until the very end of the second map, and Titan dropped to G2 and then very nearly did so against that SK team I just ragged on up there ^^. They are two teams who haven’t really been able to fully find their place in the ranks of the top teams, with inconsistency hampering them both.

NiP has resorted to a more “free” play style that seems to be benefiting them for the most part, as it has thrown many teams off enough to snag some big wins.

Titan is simply just integrating themselves into a new starting roster, with their direction in general looking up. ScreaM has been going off, and the remaining four have been able to rally behind his performances and step up their level of play as well.

Dust 2 is a map that Titan actually have shown to prefer after their acquisition of shox and Smithzz, but I still think that it favors the NiP side just a tad, almost all of their opponents have had no answer to NiP’s seemingly random attacks on such a big map. It’s been over a month since they have lost on the map to a team not names TSM (who are regarded as the kings of d2), beating teams like EnV, HR, fnatic, Diggy, and TSM themselves over that period of time. Titan has picked up some nice W’s over G2, EnV, Penta, and HR.. but in general the round differential isn’t quite as dominating as the NiP side.

This BO1, like all of them, is really going to come down to the pistol rounds and whoever can avoid getting money fucked, and while NiP has proven to be a bit more consistent, I don’t think it has been to the extent of 60+ odds for them.

Our Bet: 2% Titan

Recommended Bet: Low Titan

SK vs. Na’Vi

CSGL Odds: 10-90

Our Odds: 25-75

Like I always say, there really is no reason to analyze a 90+ odds game, unless you are thinking of dropped a max on it… and if you are considering dropping a max on Na’Vi in a BO1 then I feel sorry for your poor neglected skins.

Seriously, just ICB here for SK and hope for the best. Not worth the payout to go big Na’Vi

Our Bet: ICB SK

Recommended Bet: ICB SK

SK vs. VP

CSGL Odds: 10-90

Our Odds: 25-75

Literally the exact same situation as the Na’Vi vs. SK game. Definitely not a safe game for a max bet, as SK is actually not terrible at cobblestone and could happen to win both pistol rounds.

It’s just not a good habit to get into max betting BO1’s, and who knows when VP might go back to slipping up against weaker teams. It really wouldn’t surprise me if SK managed to win one of these two 90-10 games, and I really wouldn’t want to try and guess which one it might be, so another skip/ICB here.

Our Bet: ICB SK

Recommended Bet: ICB SK