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hamm damme has Gas Station Simulator

1 Nov @ 10:14pm

Lottery machine only makes a loss

After splurging 8.5k I would of thought it would be making money and not consistent losses after 4 days of owning. An option to sell it would be ideal.

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Showing 1-5 of 5 comments

meins_RR

2 Nov @ 1:23am

und den Schrottplatz sollte man auch verkaufen können !
Der macht auch nur Verlust und bringt kein Geld ein !

Wayward Paladin has Gas Station Simulator

2 Nov @ 1:08pm

Statistically, the first two levels of jackpot are expected to result in a loss. You'll want to save up for bigger jackpots to start turning a profit. The $50 k jackpot is where you start seeing real returns, and more is better. Even then it's risky, but profitable over the long term. A table summarizing my findings follows:

Jackpot ($, thousands)

Ticket Cost ($)

Win Chance (%)

Expected Tickets Until Win

Expected Profit ($)

Tickets to Break Even

Likelihood of Loss (%)

$1 k

$35

2.50%

27.3

-$41.78

51.5%

$5 k

$125

1.80%

38.1

-$229.93

51.6%

$10 k

$175

1.20%

57.4

$47.62

49.8%

$50 k

$550

0.71%

97.2

$3,503.66

47.7%

$100 k

$800

0.47%

147.1

$17,705.12

125

44.5%

$250 k

$1,500

0.33%

209.7

$64,546.75

167

42.4%

$1,000 k

$4,000

0.20%

346.2

$384,907.60

250

39.4%

I made a guide that goes through all the details, which you can find here. https://gtm.you1.cn/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3332500124

I agree that this doesn't make sense to have these lower jackpots. If the Devs see this, I suggest the following new parameters (and their corresponding effects):

Jackpot ($, thousands)

Ticket Cost ($)

Win Chance (%)

Expected Tickets Until Win

Expected Profit ($)

Tickets to Break Even

Likelihood of Loss (%)

$1 k

$35

2.00%

34.3

$200.84

43.9%

$5 k

$150

1.80%

38.1

$724.08

45.4%

$10 k

$200

1.20%

57.4

$1,483.00

45.3%

$50 k

$550

0.71%

97.2

$3,503.66

47.7%

$100 k

$800

0.47%

147.1

$17,705.12

125

44.5%

$250 k

$1,500

0.33%

209.7

$64,546.75

167

42.4%

$1,000 k

$4,000

0.20%

346.2

$384,907.60

250

39.4%

Note that this changed only the win chance for the $1 k jackpot and the ticket cost for the $5 k and $10 k jackpots. This makes all lotteries have positive expected value, and a higher EV as the jackpot increases. It also preserves an increasing profit per ticket (not pictured).

hamm damme has Gas Station Simulator

2 Nov @ 3:41pm

Many thanks for your both of your replies. Wow, 50k needed in bank before you can turn a small profit! Thats a great analysis Paladin, I should've done some more forum research before buying and thanks for the headsup meins.

Wayward Paladin has Gas Station Simulator

2 Nov @ 6:06pm

Originally posted by hamm damme:
Many thanks for your both of your replies. Wow, 50k needed in bank before you can turn a small profit! Thats a great analysis Paladin, I should've done some more forum research before buying and thanks for the headsup meins.

Yeeeah, it's kind of a "the rich get richer" thing. I didn't realize GSS was also Real Life Economic Simulator! :p I'm glad it was helpful, and I hope you find a way to recoup your losses; I had the same experience at first of, "I wanted to be a casino lord, not one of the chumps getting their money taken!" Hopefully the devs will tweak a few things and make it viable early on.

totemadam

3 Nov @ 2:51am

Wow! Thank you for the detailed analysis Paladin!
I never really used the lottery machine after I saw that I lost quite much money on it, but now I will think about it again.